This is the October 2016 edition of the Gwern.net newsletter; previous, September 2016. This is a collation of links and summary of major changes, overlapping with Changelog; brought to you by my donors on Patreon.
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Writings
Media
Links
Genetics:
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Everything Is Heritable:
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“Educational attainment and personality are genetically intertwined”, et al 2016
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“Ultra-rare disruptive and damaging mutations influence educational attainment in the general population”, et al 2016
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“Genome-wide analyses of empathy and systemizing: heritability and correlates with sex, education, and psychiatric risk”, et al 2016a; “Genome-wide meta-analysis of cognitive empathy: heritability, and correlates with sex, neuropsychiatric conditions and brain anatomy”, et al 2016b
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“Personality Polygenes, Positive Affect, and Life Satisfaction”, et al 2016
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Recent Evolution:
Politics/religion:
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“The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance”, 2016 (An unusually long-term followup to one of the old American basic income experiments. No large harmful effects… but no large benefits either, nothing remotely like we observe in the Third World BI/transfer experiments. And if money helps with social outcomes, it should’ve helped more in the 1970s than it does now, so I feel more pessimistic about Give Directly/YC’s USA BI experiment.)
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“The illusion of the perfect alibi: Establishing the base rate of non-offenders’ alibis”, et al 2016
AI:
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“Hybrid computing using a neural network with dynamic external memory”, et al 2016 ( blog); scaling to extremely large external memories: “Scaling Memory-Augmented Neural Networks with Sparse Reads and Writes”, et al 2016
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“Achieving Human Parity in Conversational Speech Recognition”, et al 2016
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“Video Pixel Networks”, et al 2016
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“Asynchronous Methods for Deep Reinforcement Learning (A3C)”, et al 2016
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“Deep Reinforcement Learning for Robotic Manipulation”, et al 2016 ( video; blog)
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“Uncertainty in Deep Learning”, 2016 (using dropout to turn NNs into ensembles of Bayesian NNs, allowing extraction of posterior distributions and thus uncertainty of outputs, which helps active learning & reinforcement learning)
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“Sim-to-Real Robot Learning from Pixels with Progressive Nets”, et al 2016
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Training A3C to solve Atari Pong in <4 minutes on a supercomputer through brute parallelism
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“Image Synthesis from Yahoo’s
open_nsfw
” (hilarious)
Statistics/Meta-Science:
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“Active Learning Literature Survey”, 2010
You can see this as a way to most economically increase your dataset size by only labeling the most valuable instances; it can also be used to improve dataset quality by targeting instead the errors a model makes on a noisy corpus for examination by the oracle; and finally, it can be seen as a demonstration of the advantages of reinforcement learning over simple supervised learning over heaps of data—given the curse of dimensionality, most data is useless for training a model because it is so redundant and already a solved problem, and the data the model needs to improve its performance is a needle in a haystack. So by giving a model RL capabilities, you improve its supervised/inference performance! The way I put this: “tool AIs want to be agent AIs”.
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A brief history by Andrew Gelman of the replication crisis in psychology, from the 1960s to now
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“We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results” (random error vs systematic error)
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“Close but no Nobel: the scientists who never won; Archives reveal the most-nominated researchers who missed out on a Nobel Prize” (Nobels have considerable measurement error)
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“Do scholars follow Betteridge’s Law? The use of questions in journal article titles”, 2016
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scatterplots work much better than several other forms of visualizing data for understanding correlations, 2015 (also a nice demonstration of fitting progressively more complex & realistic Bayesian models)
Psychology/biology:
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“The negative Flynn Effect: A systematic literature review”, et al 2016
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“Safe landing strategies during a fall: systemic review and meta-analysis”, 2016
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“From Terman to Today: A Century of Findings on Intellectual Precocity”, 2016
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“Stereotype (In)Accuracy in Perceptions of Groups and Individuals”, et al 2015
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“CMV Is a Greater Threat to Infants Than Zika, but Far Less Often Discussed” (it would not surprise me if CMV was responsible for my own hearing-impairment)
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“Does brain creatine content rely on exogenous creatine in healthy youth? A proof-of-principle study”, Merege-et al 2016 (null)
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“Functional MRI in awake dogs predicts suitability for assistance work”, et al 2016
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Home steam distillation of 99% pure nepetalactone from catnip leaves (0.03% yield compared to theoretical max of 0.3%, so can convert 0.45kg of leaves to 143mg nepetalactone)
Technology:
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“The Joinery”: animated explanations of traditional nail-less Japanese woodworking joints (background)
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“Uber’s Ad-Toting Drones Are Heckling Drivers Stuck in Traffic: Forget billboards-motorists now have ads buzzing a few feet above their windshields” (possibly the most cyberpunk thing I’ve seen since VR headsets)
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“Keystroke Recognition Using WiFi Signals”, et al 2015
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“APEX: Automatic Programming Assignment Error Explanation”, et al 2016
Economics:
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Abuse of ‘arbitration’ clauses in international trade treaties to escape criminal liability
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“The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics”, 2016
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“Adam Smith, Watch Prices, and the Industrial Revolution”, 2016 (commentary)
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“Everything you need to know about whether money makes you happy”
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“Young Rural Women in India Chase Big-City Dreams: Experiments like one in Bangalore, luring migrants to fill factory jobs, collide with an old way of life that keeps women and girls in seclusion until an arranged marriage” (3500 years of female slavery shrinking under industrialization and smartphones: “all fixed, fast-frozen relations, with their train of ancient and venerable prejudices and opinions, are swept away, all new-formed ones become antiquated before they can ossify. All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned…”)
Books
Nonfiction:
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The Riddle of the Labyrinth: The Quest to Crack an Ancient Code, Fox (review)
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Confessions of an English Opium-Eater, by Thomas De Quincey (review)
Fiction:
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Tales of Ise, Anonymous (review)
Music
Touhou:
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“Children on their Birthdays” (Asahi feat. Emaru; Lucky 7 {R13}) [acoustic]
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“breathless” (NAGI☆ feat. 美歌; Parallel Cross {C90}) [vocal]
Doujin:
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“Spring ephemeral” (Morrigan feat. Lily; Spring ephemeral {M3 33}) [acoustic]
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“Heure bleue” (RANDO:; RADIAL DIVERSE SYSTEM FIFTEENTH ANNIVERSARY {C90}) [electronic]
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“Hall of Mirrors” (sta; RADIAL DIVERSE SYSTEM FIFTEENTH ANNIVERSARY {C90}) [rock]
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“Parabola” (tigerlily; RADIAL DIVERSE SYSTEM FIFTEENTH ANNIVERSARY {C90}) [post-rock]
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“16777215” (b; RADIAL DIVERSE SYSTEM FIFTEENTH ANNIVERSARY {C90}) [electronic]
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“てぃんさぐぬ花” (Togo Project feat. Junko Wada(BE THE VOICE); AD:HOUSE 5 {C90}) [folk/house/acoustic]
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“Starlight,tonight” (Hommarju feat. Yukacco; Another Wor1d {C90}) [vocal]
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“Weigh the anchor” (Harito; ‘Sun Flowers’ {C90}) [house/electronic]
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“Epilogue” (n-buna; Walking on the Moon {2016}) [classical]
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“それは、本当に救済なのか” (Morrigan; from080723 DISC EDITION {C90}) [electronic/ambient/vocal]