Bibliography (221):

  1. How Sure Are You?

  2. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality Discussion Thread, Part 9

  3. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

  4. ​ Prediction Markets

  5. HP MoR: _Methods of Rationality_ or a Derivative Work Wins a Hugo Award in or Before 2016.

  6. HP MoR: _MoR_ Will Win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013–2017

  7. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality Will Be Completed by 2013

  8. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality Will Be Completed by 2014.

  9. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality Will Be Completed by 2015

  10. HP MoR: Story Completed during Harry's First Year of Hogwarts

  11. HP MoR: Story Completed during Harry's Second Year of Hogwarts

  12. HP MoR: Story Completed during Harry's Third Year of Hogwarts

  13. HP MoR: Story Completed during Harry's Fourth Year or Later of Hogwarts

  14. HP MoR: Chapter 100 Will, After 1 Month, Have 215--792 Reviews Posted on FF.net

  15. _HP:MoR_: Review-Count of _MoR_ to Surpass _UC_ within a Year

  16. HP:MoR: Review-Count of MoR to Surpass UC within 2 Years

  17. HP MoR: "A New Chapter of HP:MoR, Which Would Be More Than Two Pages in Length, Will Be Posted" --Bugmaster

  18. HP MoR: HPMOR Will Update at Least Twice in 2012

  19. HP MoR: <4 2+-Page Chapters of MoR in 2012. --Bugmaster

  20. HP MoR: >= 6 Chapters of 2+ Pages Length Published in 2012

  21. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality Will Update within the next Three Months

  22. HP MoR: Ch21: The Unheard Prophecy by Sybil Trelawney Refers To: Harry

  23. HP MoR: Ch21: The Unheard Prophecy by Sybil Trelawney Refers To: Voldemort

  24. HP MoR: Ch21: The Unheard Prophecy by Sybil Trelawney Refers To: Sirius Black

  25. HP MoR: Ch21: The Unheard Prophecy by Sybil Trelawney Refers To: Remus Lupin

  26. HP MoR: Ch21: The Unheard Prophecy by Sybil Trelawney Refers To: Hat & Cloak

  27. HP MoR: Ch45: The Hint Is about Why Harry Can't Hear Dementors

  28. HP MoR: Ch45: The Hint Is about What Is the Important Task McGonagall Was Called Away From

  29. HP MoR: Ch45: The Hint Is about Why the Dementors Are out to Get Quirrel

  30. HP MoR: Ch45: The Hint Is about What Happened to the Phoenix Fawkes

  31. HP MoR: Nobody in the LW Discussion Thread Will Predict Harry's Actual Attempted Solution (Regardless of Whether It Fails).

  32. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Nothing (Failure)

  33. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Invoking Lucius's Debt to Whomever Killed His Supposed Imperiuser

  34. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Invoke the Imperius-Debts of Other Wizengamot Members

  35. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Make Dumbledore Turn Himself in to Lucius in Exchange for Hermione's Freedom

  36. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Threaten to Destroy Azkaban

  37. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Reveal the Truth about Bellatrix's Escape

  38. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's True Identity (Quirrel)

  39. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Accept Hermione's Imprisonment but Order the Dementors to Leave Her Alone

  40. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Involve Destroying One of the Dementors

  41. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Using the Time-Turner in Some Way

  42. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Using the Time-Turner to Alter Hermione's Testimony to Something Easily Falsifiable

  43. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Using the Time-Turner to Affect Lucius in Some Way

  44. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Using the Time-Turner to Smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak

  45. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Ask for a Trial by Combat

  46. HP MoR: Ch81: Harry's Solution Will Be Have Quirrel Make Bella Confess to the Crime

  47. HP MoR: Harry Will Confess to Having Arranged the Attempted Murder of Malfoy.

  48. HP MoR: Priori Incantatum

  49. HP MoR: Ch 85 (Or Sooner): Dumbledore Will Realize Where and When Did Harry Had an Opportunity Not Just to Terrify Dementors, but to Gain Enough Confidence in This Achievement.

  50. HP MoR: Ch 85 (Or Sooner): Headmaster Would Allow Harry to Exploit Vulnerabilities of the Magic Britain's Economics to Get out of Debt (To Malfoy for His Hermione’s "Purchase").

  51. HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall Said "Not Your Fault" in Chapter 89.

  52. HP MoR: Ch90 Will Involve a Use of a Time-Turner by Any Party.

  53. HP MoR: Harry's Conclusion about the Blood of Atlantis and the Origin of Magic Is Deeply Flawed in Some Respect.

  54. HP MoR: Someone Will Be Mentioned or Shown Using the Imperius Curse on Themselves (Or Consenting to Another’s Use on Them) to Supplement Their Willpower (Dieting, Working Hard, Etc.)

  55. Humans Can Be Permanently Turned into House-Elves

  56. Humans Can Be Irrevocably Transformed into House-Elves, and This Is Revealed in Chapter 80

  57. HPMOR: The Ritual Quirrell Mentions in Chapter 74 Using a Rope That Has Hanged a Man and a Sword That Has Killed a Woman Will Be Revealed to Create a Dementor When Cast.

  58. HPMOR: The Ritual Quirrell Mentions in Chapter 74 Using a Rope That Has Hanged a Man and a Sword That Has Killed a Woman Will *be Used* to Create a Dementor

  59. It Will Be Revealed (Either in the Story or by Eliezer outside It) That It Is Impossible to Lie in Parseltongue

  60. HP MoR: Azkaban Island Is the Last Remnant of Atlantis

  61. The Use of the Device With the Golden Wibblers Is Revealed Before 2017

  62. HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes Are Where Harry Suggested Putting Hidden Things in Ch46

  63. HP MoR: There Are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes

  64. HP MoR: Horcrux Hijinks Made Amycus Carrow Go Slightly Voldemorty

  65. HP MoR: Before Quirrell Strengthened the Security on the Restricted Section, Harry Used Library Magic to Collate Information on Horcruxes from Scattered Tales

  66. HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone Requires the Sacrifice of Human Life.

  67. HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone Will Be Mass-Manufactured by Harry or at His Behest

  68. Professor Quirrel Is Manipulating Harry into Getting the Philosopher's Stone for Him

  69. HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone Is an Horcrux.

  70. HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak Will Appear in the Possession of a Character in the Present-Day at Some Point

  71. HP MoR: the Elder Wand Is Already in the Possession of a Character

  72. HP MoR: Dumbledore Possesses the Elder Wand as of Chapter 83

  73. HP MoR: Quirrel Possesses the Elder Wand as of Chapter 83

  74. HP MoR: At Some Point, Harry Will Obtain the Resurrection Stone and the Elder Wand (In Addition to His Cloak) to Become Master of Death

  75. HP MoR: Bacon's Diary Is Voldemort's Diary

  76. HP MoR: Bacon's Diary Is Both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's Diary

  77. HP MoR: Bacon's Diary Is a Horcrux

  78. HP MoR: Bacon's Diary Is a Horcrux Made by Quirrel

  79. HP MoR: Bacon's Diary Is a Horcrux Made by Quirrel When He Killed Rita Skeeter

  80. Bacon's Diary Will Turn out to Be Just a Diary.

  81. HP MoR: The Constant Glitch in the Marauder's Map Is Quirrel Appearing As 'the Defense Professor'

  82. HP MoR: The Constant Glitch in the Marauder’s Map Is Quirrel Appearing under Another Name (Eg. Tom Riddle)

  83. HP MoR: The Constant Glitch in the Marauder’s Map Is the Spirit of Voldemort or Riddle

  84. The Intermittent Glitch in the Marauder's Map Is People Appearing in Multiple Places Simultaneously due to Use of Time Turners

  85. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/6553

  86. HP MoR: Dementors Either Copy Minds or Store Souls for Later Resurrection

  87. HP MoR: Dementors Simply Kill like Anything Else, Death Is Death (Cf. _Death Note_)

  88. HP MoR: There Will Be at Least One Character Whose Animagus Form Is Another Human

  89. HP MoR: The Peverell Tombstone ("The Last Enemy That Shall Be Destroyed Is Death") Will Be Quoted or Clearly Alluded to at Some Point.

  90. HP MoR: The Original Quirrel Was Voldemort's Master or Teacher

  91. HP MoR: Lily Potter Did Not Give Petunia a Magic Potion, but Actually Imperius'Ed Her.

  92. HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy *was*, at Least Initially, Imperiused into Becoming a Death Eater

  93. Voldemort Never Intended Harry's Own Death on the Night of His Parents' Death.

  94. HP MoR: Voldemort Deliberately & Voluntarily Retired from Being Dark Lord, After Doing Something Else Involving Harry

  95. HP MoR: The Prophecy Actually Referred to Neville Longbottom and Not Harry

  96. The Prophecy in HPMR Refers to Harry and Death, Not Harry and Voldemort

  97. HP MoR: Dumbledore Deliberately Arranged for Voldemort to Learn of the Prophecy about His Defeat.

  98. HP MoR: The Prophecy As Transmitted to Voldemort Was Faked, Modified, Altered, or Incomplete

  99. HP MoR: The Phrase "the Very Stars in Heaven" in the Prophecy Refers to the Black Family

  100. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Quirrel

  101. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Dumbledore

  102. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Fred & George Weasley

  103. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Fred & George Weasley, and They Used Polyjuice Potion to Submit the Hoax Article under Rita Skeeter's Name

  104. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Fred & George Weasley, and They Gave False Memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter

  105. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart Gave False Memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter

  106. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Fred & George Weasley, and They Magically Modified the Memory of the Witnesses Rita Relied on to Write the Article

  107. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Fred & George Weasley, and They Tricked Her into Writing down the Story and Then Obliviated Her; She Trusted Her Notes and Published

  108. HP MoR: Rita Skeeter Was Hoaxed into Publishing the Article by Fred & George Weasley, and They Used Muggle Technology to Forge the Documents

  109. HP MoR: Severus Snape Is behind Hermione Draco Accident (Attempted Murder)

  110. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is behind Hermione Draco Accident (Attempted Murder)

  111. HP MoR: Dumbledore Is Responsible for Framing Hermione

  112. HP MoR: Quirrellmort Is Responsible for Framing Hermione

  113. HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy Is Responsible for Framing Hermione

  114. HP MoR: Hermione Alone Is Responsible for the Attempted Murder.

  115. HP MoR: Neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione Is Responsible for Framing Hermione

  116. HP MoR: We Won't Know Who Framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction Inspired by Http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095

  117. HP MoR: A Ritual Will Restore Voldemort to a Body

  118. HP MoR: A Ritual Will Restore Voldemort to a Body and Bellatrix Black Will Be Used in It

  119. HP MoR: Harry Will Stay at Hogwarts during Easter and His Parents Will Visit Him

  120. HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak Are All the Same Person.

  121. HP MoR: There Will Be at Least One Onscreen Polyamorous Relationship in the Methods of Rationality

  122. HP MoR: _Methods of Rationality_ Will Have an Arc/chapter Involving Harry Getting a Harem.

  123. HP MoR: Harry/Hermione Will Be the Only Romantic Pairing in the Methods of Rationality

  124. HP MoR: Harry/Luna Will Be a Romantic Pairing in the Methods of Rationality

  125. HP MoR: Harry/Ginny Will Be a Romantic Pairing in the Methods of Rationality

  126. HP MoR: Harry/Tracey Will Be a Romantic Pairing in the Methods of Rationality

  127. HP MoR: Harry/Draco Will Be a Romantic Pairing in the Methods of Rationality.

  128. HP MoR: Draco/Luna Will Be a Romantic Pairing in the Methods of Rationality

  129. HP MoR: Harry Is Voldemort

  130. HP MoR: Harry Is a Horcrux

  131. Harry's Disturbed Sleep Is a Clue to Some Unrevealed Secret (And Not Just a Time-Turner Excuse)

  132. HP MoR: Harry Will Invent Some Form of 'Metamagic' (Eg. a Self-Replicating Spell or Magical Construct/artifact)

  133. HP MoR: Harry Will Create a Superintelligent AI Using Magic or Magical Objects

  134. HP MoR: Any Superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI Will Appear As a Character/device in the Story

  135. HP MoR: Harry Will Create a Superintelligent AI Using Magic or Magical Objects, and It Won't Be Friendly, Killing Many/all

  136. HP MoR: Harry Will Bite a Teacher

  137. HP MoR: Harry Will Bite a Teacher Who Bite Him First

  138. HP MoR: Harry Will Bite a Teacher Who Bite Him First and Is Quirrel

  139. HPMOR: The Character of Harry Will Ultimately Come to at Least Consider the Fact That He Is Literally within a Story.

  140. HP MoR: Harry Will Steal the Philosopher's Stone at Some Point

  141. HPMoR : Ch 90 (Or Sooner): Harry Would Have to Exploit the Dementor/Patronum Valnerability to Gain the Dark/Light Lordship.

  142. In HPMOR, Harry Will at Some Point Accept That Souls And/or an Afterlife Exists.

  143. HP MoR: Harry Will Learn the Killing Curse by the End of the Year or Quirrell Will Be Disappointed That Harry Has Not Learned the Killing Curse by the End of the Year.

  144. HP MoR: Harry Will Become an Animagus Who Turns into a Creature Which Doesn't Age (Eg. a Basilisk)

  145. HP MoR: Harry Will Become an Animagus Who Turns into a Phoenix

  146. HP MoR: Harry Will Become an Animagus Who Turns into a Human

  147. Conditional on Prediction 6109, Hermione Granger Will Be Transformed into a House-Elf Before Chapter 85.

  148. Hermione Was Not False Memory-Charmed at Any Point between Chapter 60 and 83

  149. HP MoR: Hermione Has or Will Become a Magical Hogwarts Ghost

  150. HP MoR: Hermione Will Make a Horcrux Chronologically Before or during the Events of Ch89

  151. HP MoR: the General Consensus among the Wizengamot And/or the Populus of Magical Britain in the Wake of the Events of Chapters 88-90 Will Blame Lucius Malfoy for Releasing the Troll in Hogwarts As a Means of Getting Revenge on Hermione

  152. HP MoR: At the End of the Story Hermione Comes Back As an Alicorn Princess

  153. HP MoR: Harry Had a Hand in the Disappearance of Hermione's Corpse

  154. HP MoR: While the Diamond Was Just Transfigured from His Father's Rock, the Ring Itself Was Also Transfigured from Hermione's Remains or Part Thereof, Thus Getting past Dumbledore's Scanning for Transfigured Objects That Harry May Have Had on His Person

  155. HP MoR: Quirrel Will Spend >=2 Years As Defense Professor

  156. HP MoR: Quirrel Will Die Fighting Voldemort

  157. HP MoR: 'I Bet Quirrel Will Die Fighting Voldemort to Protect Harry Before Chapter 100'

  158. HP MoR: Quirrel Will Have Hermione Killed With Harry As a Witness

  159. HP MoR: Quirrel Is Voldemort in Some Sense

  160. Quirrel Is a Younger Version of Voldemort, a Damaged Backup from Many Years Before (Like the Diary Riddle)

  161. HP MoR: Quirrel Is the Fused Personality of Voldemort + Original Quirrel

  162. HP MoR: Quirrel Is the Original Quirrel Possessed by Voldemort (A La _Philosopher's Stone_)

  163. HP MoR: Quirrel Is a Horcrux, as well as Anything Else

  164. HPMoR: Quirrell Killed the Original Voldemort and Took His Position

  165. Quirrel Is A/the Basilisk.

  166. HP MoR: Quirrel Is Harry from the Future

  167. HP MoR: Quirrel Plans to Manipulate Harry (Already a Horcrux) into Making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so Neither Can Ever Die

  168. HP MoR: Quirrel Believes That Harry's Stone Is the Resurrection Stone

  169. HP MoR: Quirrel's Zombie-Mode Is about Spending Time at the Pioneer Probe Perspective

  170. HP MoR: the Original Quirrel Killed His Parents

  171. The Rock Dumbledore Gave Harry Is or Contains a Real Philosopher's Stone

  172. HP MoR: The Rock Dumbledore Gave Harry Is or Contains a Real Resurrection Stone

  173. HP MoR: The Rock Dumbledore Gave Harry Is or Contains an Ordinary Rock

  174. HP MoR: The Rock Dumbledore Gave Harry Is or Contains James Potter

  175. HP MoR: All Voldemort's Horcruxes except the Pioneer Probe Will Be Destroyed, and Voldemort Is Doomed to Wander the Cosmos Forever

  176. HP MoR: All Voldemort's Horcruxes except the Pioneer Probe Will Be Destroyed, and Voldemort Is Doomed to Wander the Cosmos Forever, and This Outcome Will Be Either Planned or Permitted by Harry

  177. HP MoR: Harry Is a Horcrux and Voldemort Knows This

  178. HP MoR: Voldemort Is Quirrel's Wand or Is Contained within It

  179. In HPMOR, Voldemort Is/was at Some Point in the Form of a Disembodied Spirit.

  180. HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy Believes Harry to Be Voldemort as of Ch83

  181. HP MoR: the Troll Attack in Ch88-89 Was Executed by Lucius Malfoy

  182. HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy Is Dead

  183. HP MoR: Dumbledore Did Not Kill Narcissa, but Claimed He Did.

  184. _HP MoR:_ Dumbledore Was Involved in the Attack That Ended Narcissa Malfoy's Life, but Did Not Cast the Spell That Killed Her.

  185. HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy Was Killed by Voldemort

  186. HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy Killed Herself

  187. HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy Killed Herself Accidentally Eg. by Fiendfyre (Analogous to Goyle)

  188. HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy Was Killed by Amelia Bones

  189. HP MoR: Bellatrix Black Burned Narcissa Malfoy Alive.

  190. HP MoR: Dumbledore Killed Narcissa Malfoy

  191. HP MoR: Dumbledore Killed Narcissa Malfoy by Accident

  192. HP MoR: Dumbledore Killed Narcissa Malfoy Because She Was a Horcrux

  193. HP MoR: Dumbledore Killed Narcissa Malfoy to Send a Message to the Death Eaters to Stop Attacking Order of the Phoenix Relatives

  194. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Sirius Black

  195. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Quirrel

  196. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Severus Snape

  197. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Dumbledore

  198. HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak That Interacted With Hermione Is Professor McGonagall.

  199. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Harry (Future or Present)

  200. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Leroy Lockhart

  201. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Sybil Trelawney

  202. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Is Helena Ravenclaw (The Grey Lady Ghost)

  203. HP MoR: Hat & Cloak Is Voldemort, but Not Quirrel

  204. HP MoR: Hat & Cloak Is Not a Character from Canon. He Is, in Fact, a Character from an Anime.

  205. HP MoR: Cloak & Hat Has Obliviated Blaise Zabini's Mother

  206. HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew Is Dead

  207. HP MoR: Bellatrix Black Is a Horcrux

  208. HP MoR: That Bellatrix Is Black Not Lestrange Will Be Important

  209. HP MoR: Sirius Black Is Not in Azkaban

  210. HP MoR: Sirius Black Is Not in Azkaban and the Person in Azkaban Is Peter Pettigrew

  211. HP MoR: Sirius Is Not in Azkaban, and His Replacement Is Fudge

  212. Sirius Black Is in Hogwarts

  213. HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart Will Be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic

  214. HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart Will Be Mentioned by Name but Not Appear

  215. HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart Will Be (Conditional on Appearance) Competent and Not Conceited

  216. HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart Will Be (Conditional on Appearance) Competent and Conceited

  217. In HPMOR, It Will Turn out to Be the Case That Lockheart Was at Some Point in the past (That Is to Say Before the Events of Chapter 86) Possessed by Voldemort's Spirit.

  218. HP MoR: Severus Snape Will Go back to the Dark Side, such as Working for Voldemort

  219. HP MoR: the Troll Attack in Ch88-89 Was Executed by Severus Snape

  220. HP MoR: Snape Kills Dumbledore

  221. Sybil Trelawney Will Prophesy the Unspoken Ch63 Prophecy When She Comes within Earshot of Harry