az	ca	ct	de	fl	hi	id	me	md	ma	mi	mn	ms	mo	mt	ne	nv	nj	nm	ny	nd	oh	pa	ri	tn	tx	ut	vt	va	wa	wv	wi	wy
Reality	45.8	61.6	55.2	66.4	55.2	62.6	49.9	52.9	55.3	53.7	54.7	65.3	40.3	54.7	48.7	41.8	44.7	58.5	51	71.9	50.5	50.3	53.6	64.8	30.4	40.5	30.2	24.8	52.5	60.2	60.6	51.5	21.6
Nate Silver	46.6	59.6	52.6	66.5	53.2	56.6	50	53	60.8	51.7	56	63.7	32.3	52.2	48.4	45.6	47.5	56.1	53.4	67.5	47.2	51.9	52.9	59.1	35.5	41.5	32.4	25	51	59.3	56	51.1	27.7