This morning I posted a bunch of thoughts on twitter. If you don't follow my twitter, but are interested in these, here they are.
• Bitcoin is an intellectual minefield; people misunderstand, while having high confidence that they understand.
• Bitcoin is full of the "unknown unknowns", the things that you are ignorant of but you don't realize that you are ignorant.
• “Money just doesn't work like that, I was told fervently and often.”—Nick Szabo, one of the many fathers of Bitcoin: https://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2011/05/bitcoin-what-took-ye-so-long.html
• By the way, this idea that the boom in Bitcoin is due to Cypriots trying to save their Euros? Bullshit. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100597242
• Milton Friedman on Bitcoin and the next Cyprus-style crisis: http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/113262-we-do-not-influence-the-course-of-events-by-persuading
• Bitcoin is an intellectual minefield; people misunderstand, while having high confidence that they understand.
• Bitcoin is full of the "unknown unknowns", the things that you are ignorant of but you don't realize that you are ignorant.
• “Money just doesn't work like that, I was told fervently and often.”—Nick Szabo, one of the many fathers of Bitcoin: https://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2011/05/bitcoin-what-took-ye-so-long.html
• By the way, this idea that the boom in Bitcoin is due to Cypriots trying to save their Euros? Bullshit. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100597242
• Milton Friedman on Bitcoin and the next Cyprus-style crisis: http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/113262-we-do-not-influence-the-course-of-events-by-persuading
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tweet: • And also, I think there are risks in Bitcoin that could lead to utter catastrophe. https://twitter.com/zooko/status/320271124367802368Apr 5, 2013- It appears as though the article you linked to re: Cyprus depositors NOT being behind the capital transfer to BTC seems to show the opposite..? Or are you saying that you are calling the article you linked to on CNBC bullshit?
There are people snapshotting their frozen, useless Cyprus bank accounts and posting in bitcointalk. Others are linking to Canadian proposed legislation opening the door to theft of depositors' money in the event of bank i solvency. I would suggest that — even were it not so, many people are attracted to the notion that legislation on its own isn't enough to seize bitcoin assets in one single act from on high.
I strongly think that people are unable to properly weigh the risk of bitcoin catastrophe against the injustice of some hated authority figure simply stealing a pile of money with the stroke of an unrepresentative pen. This in my opinion perversely strengthens the exchange rate. It is my fervent hope that mining hashrate will soon regain its proportionality to help guarantee the safety of peoples' overoptimistic psychological viewpoints. (i.e. btc as money worth X.)Apr 8, 2013 - +S DaggeX: yes, I'm saying that article was bullshit. There's no evidence that people who live in Cyprus, nor even in Greece or Spain, are buying Bitcoin. The recent run-up in price was much stronger in trade volume in USD than in EUR, and in fact it was a huge jump in CNY, which jumped into 3rd-most-traded-for-Bitcoin. If the story is, as you suggest "Americans and Chinese, inspired by the Cyprus affair, are pushing up the price of Bitcoin", I wouldn't call bullshit. But if the story is, as that article strongly implies, "People in Cyprus, Greece, and Spain are moving their Euros into Bitcoin ahead of the taxman.", then where's the evidence? The only evidence that I heard was something about Google Trends or some other search terms nudging up a bit in Cyprus and Spain. I didn't see any sober analysis of the absolute numbers, but I'm betting that means there are now something on the order of 12 Cypriot Bitcoin users when a few weeks ago there were 10. ;-)
Anyway, I don't necessarily disagree with most of what you wrote in your comment...Apr 8, 2013 - P.S. I said I "wouldn't call bullshit" on the story being that the Cyprus affair is the main driver of the price run-up (because of its effect on the minds of Americans and Chinese, not on Cypriots and Greeks). But, I wouldn't necessarily agree on that being the explanation, either. I don't really believe in "the explanation" of market movements.Apr 8, 2013
- Okay, thanks for clarifying. It would be interesting to discover the geographic location of the whale traders on MtGox. I would like to point out that many people simply trade in USD because that's the easiest path of least friction. I am not an American, but I trade on the USD market.Apr 8, 2013
- +Zooko Wilcox-O'Hearn Only the big players would consider it if they can keep it private. The little guy has little understanding of how it works and would get burned badly. Bitcoin like gold is a fear based currency/commodity. The 10% deposit tax will push the big boys to get into bitcoin or something very much like it.Apr 8, 2013
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